2023 F1 Predictions

00:01

Rookie of the year? First wins? And of course, the World Drivers’ Championship. I’m going to be making my predictions on the twenty-twenty three F1 season. So, get ready. Because you’ve been summoned to The Steward’s Office.

00:21

going to be talking about our: 2023

00:31

And I say ours because I’ve had a Google Form out now for a couple of weeks where I asked you guys to fill in your predictions. I’m going to let you guys know what I think is gonna happen and then compare it to what you guys have predicted which could be quite interesting. So, let’s get into it.

00:51

Just a quick disclaimer. I am really sorry if I sound a little tired or unwell but I think I might be coming down with something and I’ve just felt so exhausted. But I’m super excited to share my predictions and your ones with you guys.

01:09

We’re going to start off with two of the big predictions and that, of course, is the Constructors’ and Drivers’ World Championship.

01:17

Constructors’ championship.: 2022

01:38

By the end of the year, then, we were starting to wonder if Mercedes had enough in them to fight for second against Ferrari rather than Ferrari fighting for first with Red Bull.

01:51

This year though, I think we’re actually going to get a close battle between all three of the top teams.

01:57

Ferrari had some reliability issues with their engine that seemed to really hinder their performance last year and the points they were able to get on a race weekend. From the sounds of the reports it does look like they've managed to find a fix for that and if their strategy team have sorted themselves out, I think they could definitely, definitely be in the mix for a constructors' championship.

02:20

Mercedes is a harder one to tell for me. They did show that improvement at the end of last season. I don't think there's a doubt that definitely had a better car by the time we went to Abu Dhabi compared to when they started in Bahrain. But I think for them it's going to depend on how much the Red Bull and Ferrari have managed to improve over winter break.

02:42

There is also the reduced wind tunnel time that might hinder Red Bull a little bit and maybe not at the beginning of the season but as the development race starts as we get into a few of the races and we get into the season. That might bring them a little bit closer to Ferrari and Mercedes.

03:00

But if I’m going to have to put it out there though and just pick one team to win the constructors'… look I’m going to say it, my gut instinct is telling me that Ferrari are gonna win the WCC.

03:15

I'm committing to it. Ferrari: 2023

03:28

You guys seem to agree that the fight for the championship will be between the top three teams but you guys seem to have a lot more faith in Mercedes than I do.

03:39

A solid 50% of you think they’re gonna be taking home a ninth constructors title. I can’t lie, I would love to see it and I’m going to be holding onto your hope here guys. So, all of my hope is in your hands right now.

03:53

38% of you said that Red Bull were going to be winning the constructors' title and only 11.3% of you said that Ferrari would win it.

04:04

Honestly, I feel like most of the tifosi are just hesitant to believe in it after last year. And I completely understand. I really do. It was just a huge opportunity for them to really fight for a title and to walk away with some massive silverware and they just seemed to give up on the fight midway through.

04:24

So I'm saying Ferrari, the majority of you guys are saying Mercedes. Let's see if it's either one of them or whether Red Bull or maybe an entirely different team just storm through the pack during the season.

04:37

Looking at the drivers' championship then, this kinda feeds in from the constructors for me because obviously, you need a decent car to help you win.

04:48

I think the obvious choice at this point would be to say Max will be taking a third world title home. But I don’t think Charles or Lewis are going to make it that easy for him if they have the car and the team behind them to do it.

05:01

I would really love to see Charles and Lewis battling it out for the championship. It's a battle pairing that we haven't seen a whole load of especially right at the top of the field. So that would be something I'd be super super interested in seeing. I'd think we’d just get some really beautiful racing from the two of them.

05:19

But right now, I’m not sure what to call here. I definitely think it'll be between though three, between Max, Lewis and Charles. But I just don't know who's going to come out on top there.

05:30

The drivers' championship genuinely feels harder for me to predict than the constructors', so I’m gonna stick to saying that we’ll see a fight between these three drivers for the championship. I think the top three in the championship will be Lewis, Charles and Max. Whatever order that ends up being in, I don't know. But I think they will be in the top three. I just don't know how exactly it's going to play out.

05:55

You guys are on the same wavelength as me here thinking that the battle will be between Charles, Max and Lewis. There doesn’t seem to be an overriding confidence in who it’ll be.

06:06

Lewis came out with about 37.5% of the vote. And then an equal amount of you thought it would be Max or Charles. So, there's not really an overwhelming majority that you guys think and are really backing here.

06:21

Look, I just really hope we get a close championship this year. I wanna see epic battles throughout the season. Not have the season tied up early like we have done for a couple of seasons now, where we don't really get it to go to Abu Dhabi. I wanna see us take the championship all the way to the end without seeing a clear front-runner.

06:41

So looking at the other end of the tables, who do I think is going to come last in the championships? For the constructors', I really think it’s going to be Williams.

06:53

I don’t think we’re going to see a huge amount of improvement from them compared to last year. They’ve been towards the back the past few years anyway but yeah, I can’t see them really pushing on leaps and bounds and I think the rest of the teams would have made some significant improvements.

07:11

What I do think might happen though is that Haas might end up further back this year. I’m not sure how well the pairing between Nico and Kevin is going to go and how well Nico will do in the car after a couple of years out. So, I think they’ll be in ninth but I can definitely see Williams walking away last in the championship again this year.

07:34

I’m glad to know that you guys seem to agree with me here. 46% of you think Williams are going to end up in last and then 36% of you think that it's going to end up being Haas.

07:46

There is a pretty good chance that it could be Haas but I just think the car is much better than it has been, and hopefully, we won’t see them taking a step backwards.

07:57

The thing is, even if Nico struggles, even just for the first few races, Kevin is there to help grab those points if the car is in the right window.

08:08

The other teams a couple of you guys voted for were Aston Martin and AlphaTauri. I’m not too sure about these ones guys. Especially to slide all the way back to the end of the table.

08:21

I think they both are teams that need to improve. We've seen both of those cars be better. We know that they have in the teams and the drivers to do better.

08:29

Definitely have seen AlphaTauri be a better team and Aston Martin have pretty big aspirations of their own. So, I don’t know whether they’re going to improve from where they are right now but I don’t think they’re going to end up in last.

08:41 As for who’s going to come last in the Drivers’ Championship, I genuinely think it’s gonna end up being Logan Sargeant.

08:51

Between being a rookie and not having the best car on the grid, I think it’s just going to be a difficult year for him and it’s going to be hard when he’s up against Alex as his teammate.

09:02

I don’t personally think there’s anyone else particularly in contention for last place.

09:07

I'm not alone in thinking this though because there’s over 50% of you guys that think the same thing. Look, in a different car it might be a different story but in that Williams, it’s just going to be a struggle for Logan.

09:23

Just over 25% of you guys did think that Nico would be the one to come in last and, look, I could see that happening. The reason why I wouldn’t put him in last is because the Haas is a much better car than it has been in previous years and I think the new sponsorship from Moneygram has given them more money to be able to improve the car and hopefully improve the pitstop tools

09:49

And even though it’s been three years, Nico has a wealth of experience as an F1 driver. I don't think you completely forget all that, so I don’t think he’s gonna do that badly.

10:01

We then moved on to looking at the driver who would end up with the most pole positions this season. Hands down, I think this is once again going to be Charles.

10:13

His one-lap pace is insane. He just knows exactly what to do to extract the most out of the car and the tyres on a Saturday. So, I don’t really see that changing unless Mercedes end up having a quicker car, then it's gonna be pretty interesting to see how quali goes between Lewis and George.

10:34

For some reason though, I just think that regardless of their race pace, Ferrari will manage to put together a really good car for quali and Charles will manage some incredibly quick laps in it. I would love to see him beat his own record of the number of poles in a season in a Ferrari but we’ll wait and see what happens there.

10:54

Charles is also the driver that you guys think will get the most amount of poles. After that you thought it would be Max. I think, if the car is quick enough for him then it is entirely a possibility but in general, I don’t think quali is his strongest suit. His driving is more suited to the actual race in my opinion. He's a much stronger race driver than he is a quali driver.

11:19

After that you guys thought it was Lewis and about four of you thought that it would be George. With George, I’m really interested in seeing how his quails are going to end up like if Merc has a better car this year.

11:33

He earned the title of Mr Saturday when he was at Williams because he seemed to outperform the car during quali. Extracted so much performance out of it that shouldn't necessarily be there.

11:45

Lewis did beat him last year in the quali head-to-head though but with a car that hopefully won’t be bouncing as much and has some more power in it, it’ll be interesting to see if he can get ahead of Lewis over the course of the season.

11:58

So then I was curious as to which drivers you thought might be retiring or leaving at the end of this season.

12:06

I don’t think we’re going to get any retirements this year but I do think we’re going to see some drivers leaving. In particular, I think Nico and Logan are going to end up leaving the grid.

12:19

With Nico, I just don’t think he’s going to live up to the expectations Haas have of him and as long as they can find a better option, then I don’t think he’ll be sticking around. Especially if he doesn’t seem to get along with Kevin and they end up having issues on track and not being able to bring both cars home.

12:39

With Logan… look right now, I think Williams are just trying to figure out what to do with their driver pairing but if he ends up at the bottom of the table then there’s a good chance his seat is at risk.

12:54

ink it'll be up by the end of: 2023

13:09

Your thoughts on this one were probably some of the most interesting that I’d seen on the Google form because they weren’t ones that I had really considered.

13:19

him being in his seat beyond: 2023

13:30

If he does go, I’m going to be really curious who Haas bring in. Maybe they’ll try and rope Romain into coming back from Indycar, get the old band back together maybe. But yeah. It seems that we’re all in agreement there.

13:45

So the driver that had the second amount of votes from you guys was Fernando Alonso. This one I can understand the reasoning behind.

13:55

Fernando’s said himself that as long as there’s the chance of a win or a championship he will stay with Aston Martin. And he’s not even asking for a big chance here,

14:06

He’s definitely not ready to finish his F1 journey and his F1 career just yet. But if Aston regress or even if they just stay in the same place I’m not sure how willing he’s gonna be to stay with the team.

14:19

And in the same breath, I’m not sure whether Aston will want to keep Fernando at the end of the year. They’ve currently got Felipe Drugovich as part of their team as a development and reserve driver. He’s exciting young talent and I wonder whether they’re going to want to pull him up to the seat.

14:38

He's an F2 champion. He won F2 last year. Looks to be amazing driver. really guy, nice personality. So, I don't know how much or how long they're gonna wanna keep Fernando in that seat for and whether they are looking at the future and looking at potentially putting Felipe Drugovich in that seat.

14:56

So, I can see why some people might think that Alonso would retire at the end of the season if any of those things happen because where else does he go at this point?

15:07

I don’t think there’s another plausible seat for him on the grid. Saying that though, I didn’t think that he was ever going to end up at Aston Martin but here we are.

15:18

So, yeah, not a driver I personally think will be leaving at the end of the season. I feel like Aston will keep him on for another year but a lot of you think that it’s going to be the case. Maybe by the time we get to silly season, we might have some more answers on that one.

15:34

There were also a lot of votes for Checo, Valtteri and Yuki and those were the ones really surprised me to be honest with you.

15:43

And I spoke about this in my: 2022

15:58

I’m curious as to whether people think Checo is going to be leaving at the end of the season because Daniel will end up taking his place. I wouldn’t say that it’s out of the realm of possibilities. If he continues to struggle with the car and also isn’t in a position to be able to help Max when he needs and also help the team wrap up a constructors’ championship, then I could see him going.

16:20

ould be leaving at the end of: 2023

16:30

Valtteri though, do you guys know something that I don’t? Because I definitely don’t think he’s going to be a driver that leaves.

16:38

Honestly, I think he’s one of the most secure drivers on the grid right now. Alfa Romeo seem to be really happy with him and he’s giving them some great results and as well as feedback on the car.

16:51

€™t taking full control until: 2026

17:08

I’m just really curious on the thinking behind this one, if I'm honest with you guys, because even if Alfa Romeo weren't willing to keep him on, didn't offer him another contract, he is such a good driver that I think there would be a lot of teams willing to sign him.

17:23

don't see him on the grid in: 2024

17:38

Then there’s Yuki and I think I could potentially understand the reasoning behind this one a little bit more compared to Valtteri at least.

17:46

He’s a Red Bull driver in the AlphaTauri and we all know that the AlphaTauri seat and mainly used as a step for Red Bull juniors in F2 to get into F1 and then eventually move into the Red Bull main seat.

18:01

Nyck De Vries is an exception there but I think with them losing Pierre and not particularly thinking that any of their current crop of junior drivers were ready for F1, he was a pretty good guy for them to hedge their bets on.

18:14

If there’s an absolutely stand out RBR junior in F2 then there’s definitely a chance that Yuki could lose his seat. I don’t think RBR are really looking at pulling him into the main seat either. So, I could potentially see him leaving at the end of the season but I’m not too convinced on this one yet, guys.

18:34

There were five drivers that no one voted for and they were Charles, Carlos, Oscar, Lando and George. And I have to agree with you guys here.

18:45

I definitely don’t think any of these drivers are planning on leaving any time soon or are at risk of losing their seats. And if they did, I don’t think ay of them are gonna struggle to find another team to join.

18:57

So, those were the drivers that we think are going to be leaving or retiring at the end of the season.

19:04

But then I wanted to know which drivers you thought might be moving teams at the end of this season.

19:10

The only one I feel pretty sure that is going to move teams is Alex Albon. I think he was pretty clear in showing that he has driving skills that go way beyond what the Williams can give him.

19:23

f he isn't in the Williams in: 2024

19:35

Like I mentioned earlier, Checo is another one that I think will end up moving teams if Red Bull decide to drop him from their line up. But I think those are the only two with the most potential to move teams. I think Alex is more likely to move teams than anyone on the grid right now.

19:53

You guys had some more ideas on this one though. So, I’m going to go with the top five drivers that you all picked.

19:59

Coming in at number five is Zhou Guanyu. So, I didn’t think this would be a driver that would be changing teams. He had a pretty strong rookie season and I really hope that he carries on with that trajectory but maybe you guys voted for him because of the Audi takeover. I am curious where you guys think he’s going to end up if he does decide to move or if Alfa Romeo end up deciding not to renew his contract. So, that was a bit of an interesting one.

20:28

After that you guys then said Nyck de Vries. I’m going to assume you’re all thinking that he’ll be taking the Red Bull seat from Checo which I could see happening in all honesty. If he had a pretty strong year in twenty-twenty three and if Checo is struggling or maybe not as willing to listen to team orders, I could definitely see RBR giving Nyck a chance. Like I said, I don’t think there are any Red Bull juniors ready for the main seat and I don't think they're looking at Yuki to take it. So, I could see this potentially happening.

21:02

The third driver you all picked out was Yuki Tsunoda. Maybe you guys are thinking the same thing with him as well, being in competition for the RBR seat. I’ve got to be honest with you guys, I personally don’t see it happening.

21:16

I don’t know why. I honestly think that Yuki is a good driver, he’s definitely improved and I think there’s a lot more for him to give but like I've mentioned, just don't think RBR are looking at him seriously to take that main seat. And maybe some of that stems from some of the comments Helmut Marko’s made about him. But there could be potential for some other teams to be interested in him if AlphaTauri were to drop him from their lineup.

21:45

The second most voted for driver is one that we are all in agreement with, and that is Alex Albon. I was so glad to see that you guys thought the same thing as me. If the Williams doesn’t improve much in the standings this year, I really hope he finds another team. He’s just got a lot of talent that I want him to be able to showcase that and I think we could get some really exciting racing at the front of the pack from him.

22:11

of votes for moving teams for: 2024

22:27

He’s also one of the drivers that you guys think is most likely to leave the grid at the end of the year. So, I’m not sure what’s going on there but like I said earlier, if RBR do decide to drop him from their lineup, I think he’s going to be able to find another seat somewhere on the grid, I’m not sure whether it’ll be with another top team though.

22:48

Last year we had two new race winners on the grid. Carlos Sainz and George Russell got their first wins in Silvertone and Sao Paulo. And whilst the wins might not have been as surprising as the likes of Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly, it’s still incredible to see new people join that coveted list.

23:06

What I wanted to know though was which driver you thought was going to be most likely to get their first race win this season and the majority of you guys are in agreement with me. We think it’s most likely going to end up being Lando Norris.

23:20

The McLaren I think needs to work on their car a bit more for it to be a proper race contender and really fighting at the front. But that might happen this year for all we know.

23:31

If not, I think it might take a few things happening up front or a qualifying like when Kevin took pole in twenty-twenty two for Lando to get the win. But as long as he’s given that small window, then I don’t see why he couldn’t do it to be honest with you.

23:47

When you're looking at the top teams on the grid. The top three teams, all of their drivers have had their first win. Same with Alpine, both of their drivers have had their first win. So, the next team down is McLaren. And out of Oscar and Lando, I think it's mostly likely going to be Lando.

24:04

And he's been close to the win as well. So, not out of the realms of possibility. Let's see if he can manage it this year.

24:11

Fines are something that I just kept seeing come up for teams and drivers alike last year. And there are two teams that I think could potentially end up with the most amount of fines and that’s Red Bull and Aston Martin.

24:26

Look, I hope that Red Bull would have learnt from the cost cap issues last year and not get another fine for that but there are so many other things a team can get fines from, from the most basic things like an unsafe release during a pitstop. So, for me with Red Bull it's just a gut feeling at this point.

24:46

With Aston though… I don’t know I feel like Alonso might just take the mantel from Seb and end up causing some issues that result in fines. Nothing malicious but just ends up happening.

25:01

You guys ended up agreeing with me that Red Bull would be the team to end up with the most fines but in second place, you guys thought it would be Haas.

25:11

I mean, there’s the potential there. If Kevin and Nico aren’t getting along and there are some track incidents, unsafe releases like I mentioned, wrong tyres on the wrong car during a pitstop… I mean that’s definitely something I could see Haas doing.

25:25

Then yeah, there is a good chance that it could be Haas being the team with the most fines.

25:32

Okay so the team with the most drama did not surprise me because we’re in agreement again here yet again. We're all saying it's going to be Red Bull.

25:43

I think we saw some tension with Checo last year. He wasn’t too happy following team orders throughout the entire year and I don’t think that’s going to get any better in twenty-twenty-three.

25:54

Max is the Red Bull number one driver and I’m sure the entire team are going to be pushing to get him a third title this year. Checo seems to be in a more supporting role within the team.

26:06

Definitely there to help with the constructors' title and to help Max with the drivers' but not really there to fight for a title of his own.

26:13

The car, as we know, is definitely more geared towards Max and even though I’ve seen some comments and reports where apparently Checo has said he’s helped push the car development towards something that he’s more comfortable with, I can’t see that having a huge amount of difference.

26:29

I think the majority of the car is still going to be geared towards Max’s driving style. He's been with the team for much longer as well, so they've crafted that car around him. And the team as well as Christian are going to be focusing on him getting the championship. So, yeah, I definitely think there’s gonna get a little bit of drama there.

26:50

Finally, at the end of the Google form, I gave you guys a free text field to tell me some of your most unhinged predictions for the season. And there were some really interesting ones. So here we go!

27:04

One of you guys thought that a team leader was going to end up leaving during the middle of the season. And with team principal silly season having happened at the end of twenty-twenty two, I wouldn’t put it past any of them.

27:17

I don't think I know of any team principal that has left in the middle of the season, from what I can remember. Please let me know if there have been.

27:28

But I think it would definitely be the cause of some drama. Definitely have some repercussions for whatever team it came from. So, I don't know, we'll have to see if that happens. It would definitely have an impact, definitely be interesting to see.

27:42

So, another one we had was Andreas Seidl confirms Lando for Audi in the middle of the season. You know what, the amount of theories I’ve seen about how Audi hired Seidl to try and eventually get Lando in the car. It's insane. I've seen a lot of them floating around.

28:00

I just can't see it happening. I mean Lando's got a very long contract that he signed last year with McLaren. And yeah, contracts can be broken but he's seems to be fairly committed to the team.

28:14

And McLaren is a known entity right now. You know, okay, they're not the best car on the grid but they're a known entity. They're not at the back of the grid. Audi coming in, it's a little bit more unknown. You don't know where they're going to end up.

28:30

I think there is the potential for him to end up there at some point. But I don't think they're going to be announcing him going to Alfa Romeo, which will eventually be Audi, this year. But yeah, let's see if it happens.

28:41

Aston Martin get a surprise win and get called the Green Bull again. Okay but let’s be honest here, when the Green Bull reveal happened it was amazing. When you had the entirety of the Red Bull pitwall sit with the green Red Bull.

28:59

I would absolutely love to see this happen though. Maybe not Aston Martin having a complete copy for the Red Bull car. But definitely, them getting their first win. I think that would be incredible.

29:09

en so so close before. Turkey: 2020

29:25

So, yes. I would like to see this happen. Let's do it. Yeah, green bull, make the comeback. Aston, you can do it. Get a race win this season.

29:33

Equal amounts of drama at Ferrari and Red Bull. Hmm, I don’t know. Vasseur looks like he wants to treat both of the drivers qutie fairly and let them both have a genuine stab at the championship so I don't think it'll come from driver drama.

29:53

I mean maybe we'll see the drivers and Vasseur have some, not arguments, but disagreements with other parts of the team. maybe the strategy team, the pitwall, things like that. The lack of communication the pitwall tends to have with the driver sometimes.

30:08

Maybe from that. But I don't know, I don't see it happening. I don't think it'll be an equal amount of drama. There might be some. There's always drama with all of the teams but I think hands down, Red Bull are gonna end up with the most drama this year.

30:23

Merc has a throwback of: 2016

30:32

y bad when it was going on in: 2016

30:45

And I think that's what made: 2016

30:53

space now compared to back in: 2016

31:06

And I think for George, he's trying to learn as he can from Lewis before Lewis decides to leave the grid. So, I think they're really trying to work together and get the most out of each other.

31:16

Do I think it'll be cordial as twenty-twenty two was? Maybe not depending on how the car is this year but I hope that it's still respectful. A lot like how him and Val were. They battle hard on track but when they get out of the car, they're still friends. They're good teammates and they're just trying to push the team forward.

31:37

This is an interesting one, Oscar outshines Lando. Now I'm not going to say that's impossible to happen but it' might be a struggle to begin with. At the start of the season I think it's gonna be Oscar just trying to get to grips with a Formula One car and driving a Formula One race compared to F2 and F3.

31:57

Definitely be interesting to see what happens if this ends up coming true though. So, I'll be interested to watch out on that one.

32:04

They’re gonna switch Checo mid-season. Okay, look, I don’t think that’s an unhinged prediction because we’ve seen RBR do this before. So, more of a normal prediction but could definitely see this one happening.

32:18

s contact is until the end of: 2024

32:50

And the fine one that I’ll leave you with is Williams not ending the year in last and Alex winning a race… yeah, this might be a little unhinged. I think there would have to be SO much happening up ahead for Alex to get a race win.

33:09

How many DNFs would we actually need to see? I would say Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, Alpine, McLaren. Half of the drivers would somehow need to DNF or have some sort of engine issue before I could really see Alex in the running.

33:26

And even then, might be a little bit of a struggle. So, that's definitely unhinged guys. Especially them not ending in last in the constructors'. But I would definitely love to see Alex get a race win, in the Williams as well. That would be very impressive.

33:44

Those were definitely some interesting predictions at the end there and I’m going to love to see if any of them actually happen because yeah those were some unhinged predictions that were included.

33:59

I’m going to keep a note of all our predictions for the season and come back to them after Abu Dhabi. Let’s see how many we managed to get right and how far off we are with some of them. Honestly, I don’t have a clue, some of these were really hard to figure out because I just don’t know how much improvement some of the teams would have made over winter.

34:21

I think a lot of them are still trying to figure out the new regulations and once you nail those, I don't know how much time they would have been able to make up from just getting a better car design. Better aero. From getting rid of the porpoising.

34:34

But hopefully as pre-season testing gets under way we might get a better idea as to where everyone is standing.

34:41

hen I do a ranking of all the: 2023

34:54

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